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Weekly Top Gainers / Losers

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investor activity throughout the week was not high due to the holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) on Monday. Probably, investors are waiting for the publication of preliminary data of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on January 26th. Last week, cryptocurrencies rose in price amid the relatively calm bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange and other crypto companies. The strengthening of the British pound was supported by good economic indicators on the labor market. Unemployment in November remained at the level of October (3.7%). The growth of the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index slowed down in December to +10.5% y/y. This is better than expected. Inflation in Japan in December (+4% y/y) turned out to be better than the forecast (+4.4% y/y). This supported the yen. The Canadian dollar weakened slightly on the back of lower retail sales in November. Negative for the South African rand was the decline in the economic performance of South Africa Mining Production, Gold Production in November, as well as the weak growth of South Africa Retail Sales.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell and hit a 7-month low. The change in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m in December turned out to be negative (-0.1%) for the first time since May 2020. Investors believe that the beginning of the decline in inflation may limit further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Accordingly, the US dollar was among the leaders of the weakening last week. The euro, on the contrary, strengthened due to the statement of the European Central Bank about plans to raise its rate by 1.25% during 2023. Now it is 2.5%. Recall that inflation in the EU for December in the 2nd assessment will be published on January 18. Preliminarily, it amounted to 9.2% y/y. The strengthening of the yen was supported by investors' expectations that the Bank of Japan would somehow tighten its monetary policy at the January 18 meeting. The strengthening of the Chinese yuan was supported by a good foreign trade performance in December (China Trade Balance) and relatively low inflation (+1.8% y/y). US natural gas quotes continued to decline for the 4th week in a row due to warmer weather, as well as due to reduced industrial production and demand for gas in Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the change in the US dollar index has been minimal again. As expected, the Fed raised the rate by 0.5% to 4.5% at the December 14 meeting. At first, this caused a negative reaction in the Forex market. Investors decided that the rate would stabilize around 5%. Thus, its growth in 2023 will be minimal despite the relatively high inflation of 7.1% y/y in November. At the end of last week, the dollar index won back almost all losses due to good US economic indicators University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and lower inflation in industry. The Swiss franc strengthened significantly due to the increase in the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate to 1% from 0.5%. The South African Parliament refused to impeach the incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, the very discussion of this issue had a negative impact on the rate of the South African rand.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index remained almost unchanged. Investors are looking forward to the Fed meeting on December 14 and the rate hike to 4.5% from the current level of 4%. The euro showed strengthening ahead of the next meeting of the European Central Bank on December 15th. His rate (2%) can also be raised. An additional positive for the euro was the EU GDP growth of 2.3% y/y in the 3rd quarter. This is more than expected. The yen strengthened in anticipation of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan at its December 20 meeting. In addition, Japan Gross Domestic Product fell less than expected in the 3rd quarter (-0.8% y/y). The weakening of the Canadian dollar was facilitated by a relatively small increase in the Bank of Canada rate at a meeting on December 7 - to 4.25% from 3.75%. The Mexican peso weakened as inflation fell to 7.8% y/y in November. This may prompt an easing of the monetary policy of the Bank of Mexico at its December 15 meeting. His rate is now 10%.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to decline and updated a 5-month low. Based on US statistics, market participants expect a slowdown in the Fed rate growth. According to CME FedWatch, at the next Fed meeting on December 14, it will be increased by only 0.5% to 4.5% with a probability of about 80%. Earlier, the US regulator raised the rate by 0.75% 4 times in a row. The 10-Year US Treasury yield hit a new 9-week low of 3.5% on Friday. The weakening of the South African rand came amid risks of impeachment of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. The Canadian dollar fell against the backdrop of falling oil and gas prices. In addition, investors expect the Bank of Canada rate to increase by only 0.25% to 4% at the meeting on December 7 from the current level of 3.75%. The Japanese yen continued to strengthen from its 30-year low, which looks like a USDJPY high. Earlier, the Bank of Japan (-0.1%) said it would not allow the yen to weaken too much. Recall that the meeting will be held on December 20.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell, neverthless failed to update the previous low. After the publication of the Fed materials (Fed minutes), market participants became stronger in the opinion that the US regulator may slow down the growth of the rate. The 10-Year US Treasury yield dropped to a 7-week low of 3.66% on Friday. The euro weakened against some currencies in anticipation of preliminary data on inflation in the EU for November, which will be released on November 30th. The New Zealand dollar strengthened as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its rate to 4.25% from 3.5%. South African Reserve Bank also raised the rate to 7% from 6.25%. This contributed to the strengthening of the South African rand.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. It is possible that the activity of market participants has decreased before the Thanksgiving Day in the US, which will be on November 24th. Nevertheless, we can note the weakening of the US dollar against certain currencies due to investors' expectations that the Fed rate will slow down its growth and is unlikely to exceed 5%. The strengthening of the Australian dollar was facilitated by good data on the labor market in October and a decrease in the Australia Unemployment Rate to 3.4%. The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the decline of the New Zealand Producer Price Index (PPI) in the 3rd quarter. The Swiss franc strengthened on strong foreign trade performance in October and growth in Switzerland Industrial Production in Q3 2022.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has fallen by almost 4% due to important statistics. In October, US inflation amounted to +0.4% m/m. This is less than expected (+0.6% m/m). Now the probability of a Fed rate hike of 0.5% has exceeded 80%, while a week earlier it was only 52%. Prior to this, the American regulator raised the rate by 0.75% four times in a row and now it is 4%. It should be noted that annual inflation in the US in October for the first time in 8 months turned out to be less than 8% and amounted to 7.7%. This is the minimum since January of this year +7.5% y/y. Cryptocurrency quotes collapsed amid the possible bankruptcy of the FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange. The Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened noticeably due to rising prices for commodities. An additional positive for them was the easing of anti-coronavirus restrictions in China. The yen was supported by an unexpectedly large Japan Current Account in September.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has grown significantly and updated the maximum since June 2002. Now it is trading above the psychological level of 110 points. Over the past 12 months, the US dollar index has risen by almost 20%. The main positive for the US currency was the increase in the Fed rate to 3.25% from 2.5% at the meeting on September 21. Investors do not rule out that by March 2023 the rate may increase to 4.5%. Bank of Japan maintained a negative rate (-0.1%) at the September 22 meeting. At the same time, BOJ carried out foreign exchange intervention for the first time since 1998. This contributed to the strengthening of the yen. The Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone weakened amid stagnation in global hydrocarbon prices. These countries actively produce and export oil and natural gas. The New Zealand Trade Balance 12-Months record deficit in August could have contributed to the decline in the New Zealand dollar quotes. Note that the negative balance of New Zealand foreign trade has been observed for 16 months in a row.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen, but failed to renew the recent high. The Swiss franc strengthened ahead of the Swiss National Bank meeting on September 22. In June, the bank raised the rate from (-0.75%) to (-0.25%), for the first time since 2007. Investors hope that the tightening of the SNB's monetary policy will continue. The yen weakened on the back of weak economic data and a new record Japan Trade Balance deficit in August (-2.82 trillion yen). The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on September 22. Rate hike (-0.1%) is not expected yet. It has been negative since 2016. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are weakening against the backdrop of a slowdown in the Chinese economy. China is a significant trading partner of these countries.

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