Heads of the world's central banks will speak today - 29.6.2022

On Tuesday, the US dollar index rose. This was mainly due to the weakening of the euro before today's speeches by the leaders of the Fed Jerome Powell, European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Andrew Bailey. They can comment on plans to change monetary policy. Investors fear that the ECB rate hike (0%) will be minimal at the next meeting on July 22. Recall that the last time the European regulator raised the rate 11 years ago, and after that it has been continuously reduced. The negative balance of payments of the European Union Current Account may become a negative factor for the active tightening of the ECB's monetary policy. It turned negative for 2 consecutive months (March and April) for the first time since 2011. This morning the data of Retail Sales (retail sales) in Japan and Australia were published. They were better than expected. This contributed to the strengthening of the yen and the Australian dollar. Note that inflation in Germany will be published today, which may affect the euro.

Bitcoin is declining for the 4th day in a row today and has again approached the psychological level of $20,000. An important reason for the fall of the cryptocurrency market quotes was the tightening of its regulation in the US, China and other countries. This has reduced the attractiveness of investing in crypto assets by investors who want to remain anonymous. In addition, cheaper bitcoin has become less attractive for mining in the face of rising prices for electricity and computer equipment. Recall that according to the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance, the US accounts for up to 40% of the world's cryptocurrency mining.

Yesterday the US stock indexes went down. Market participants reacted to bad economic data. US indicator conference board (CB) consumer confidence fell to a 16-month low of 98.7 in June from 103.2 in May. An additional negative was the weak financial performance of the sportswear manufacturer Nike (-7%). Against this background, the industry index S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary (-4%) became the drop leader. Electric vehicle maker Tesla has fired employees working on Autopilot (automated driver). Against this background, its shares fell by 5% and the NASDAQ high-tech index fell by 3%. Apple and Microsoft fell 3% and Amazon.com fell 5%. Today in the US GDP for the 1st quarter will be released in the final reading. According to forecasts, it will be at the level of the previous estimate (-1.5% q/q).

On Tuesday, oil quotes rose for the 3rd day in a row. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently trading above the psychological level of $110 per barrel. According to investors, there are only 2 countries (Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) that are able to increase their oil production in order to compensate for the decline in Russian production. However, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei unexpectedly said that his country has little opportunity to do this Similar doubts were expressed by French President Emmanuel Macron. An additional positive for the oil market was the message of the American Petroleum Institute on the reduction of oil reserves in the United States for the week by 3.8 million barrels. Recall that the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a reduction in oil production in Russia from -for economic sanctions by 3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 8.7 million bpd in 2022 and maintaining this level throughout 2023. In May, it was higher and, according to the IEA, amounted to about 9.3 million bpd. OPEC is more optimistic and believes that Russian oil production will stabilize at 10.6 million bpd this year, which may be a sign that the cartel is not ready to replace Ross yu in the world oil market.