Today, a meeting of the European Central Bank will take place - 15.6.2023

On Wednesday, the US dollar index decreased. However, this morning it rose and regained all of yesterday's losses. On June 14th, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. Initially, this disappointed investors, but later Fed officials delivered some good news. They stated the possibility of raising the rate twice by 0.25% each time if the U.S. inflation exceeds the target level of 2% y/y. The next Fed meeting will take place on July 26th. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 0.25% rate hike from the current level of 5.25% to 5.5% has reached 71.9%. A month ago, it was only 13.1%. This is a positive factor for the U.S. dollar.

Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its regular meeting. An increase in the interest rate from the current level of 3.75% to 4% is expected. This supports the EURUSD exchange rate and significantly hampers the rise of the U.S. dollar index. Additionally, today the European Union Trade Balance for April will be released. It is worth noting that in March, the surplus unexpectedly soared to +17 billion euros, reaching a two-year high.

This morning, positive data on the Australian labor market for May were released. Australia's Employment Change reached an 11-month high of 75.9 thousand, which strengthened the Australian dollar. On the contrary, weak economic statistics were published in Japan. Japan's Trade Balance in May demonstrated a significant deficit of 1.37 trillion yen, and Machinery Orders declined by -5.9% y/y in April. Against this backdrop, USDJPY reached a new high this morning, not seen since November 2022. It is worth mentioning that tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its regular meeting, with no changes expected in the interest rate (-0.1%).

Bitcoin prices resumed their decline yesterday and are currently slightly below $25,000. Market participants are concerned as several crypto firms have reported potential cyberattacks. Another negative factor could be the announcement of a possible registration review of Binance Cyprus Limited by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission.

Yesterday, there was no unified trend in the US stock market. The Dow index decreased, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased. Investors are trying to assess the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on stock prices and company financials. On Wednesday, shares of computer chip manufacturers Nvidia (+4.8%) and Broadcom (+4.1%) reached record highs, contributing to the overall rise in the high-tech sector. Advanced Micro Devices saw a 2.2% increase in its stock quotes. On the other hand, oil companies declined due to a slight decrease in global oil prices. Today, retail sales for May will be released in the US, along with other less significant economic indicators such as the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Initial Jobless Claims, and others.