Oil rises in price against the background of the forecast of global demand from OPEC - 18.1.2023

On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued to trade in a narrow range for the 3rd day in a row. There was no special economic information in the US. Investor activity was not high due to the holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) on Monday. This morning the meeting of the Bank of Japan took place. It maintained its monetary policy and rate (-0.1%). This caused the weakening of the yen and the rise of the Japanese stock index Nikkei. The British pound is now continuing to strengthen thanks to a slight decrease in inflation in December. Growth in the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index slowed to 10.5% y/y from 10.7% y/y in November.

Bitcoin quotes have been in a narrow range just above $21,000 for several days. Earlier, the players positively perceived the bankruptcy mechanism of the FTX crypto exchange. During the investigation, there were even some assets that could go to creditors.

Yesterday, US stock indices continued to trade in a narrow range for the 3rd day in a row, as did the dollar index. The main reason for this was a holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) on Monday. Corporate reporting for the 4th quarter of last year looks positive so far despite the forecast of Refinitiv agency. It expects S&P 500 companies' combined profits to fall 2.4% y/y. However, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 4.8% last week. The S&P 500 and the Dow edged up just above 2%. Shares of Tesla Inc soared 7.4% yesterday, driven by increased sales of electric vehicles in China. Shares of Morgan Stanley rose almost 6% due to good reporting. Today in the US there will be significant data on retail sales and producer prices in December (Retail Sales, Producer Price Inflation), as well as other economic indicators: Industrial Production, Business Inventories and the Fed Beige Book economic review. Quarterly reports of Charles Schwab Corp, Prologis Inc, Alcoa and other US companies will also be published.

On Tuesday, oil quotes rose markedly. Brent exceeded the psychological mark of $85 per barrel and WTI - $80 per barrel. Investors expect an increase in demand for hydrocarbons in China. Chinese GDP in the 4th quarter of 2022 slowed down to +2.9% y/y. However, most market participants hope for a recovery in its growth by the end of 2023 to +4.9%. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that China alone will increase its oil consumption by 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. At the same time, global oil demand will increase by 2.2 million bpd in 2023. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly oil inventory data for the week is due out tonight, delayed by a day due to a holiday on Monday.

The slowdown in the Chinese economy may have a negative impact on the demand for beef meat.

Natural gas quotes in Europe on ICE Dutch TTF fell to $630 per 1000 cubic meters. The price of US gas on Henry Hub is about $3.24 mmBtu.