Today, the US will discuss the increase in the national debt limit - 17.5.2023

This morning, the US dollar index continues its confident rise, already reaching a six-week high. The main reason for this is the positive economic data released yesterday. United States Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and Business Inventories all came in better than expected. Despite this, investors still believe that the Federal Reserve will maintain the high rate of 5.25% at least until the September 20 meeting. They are also confident that the US government's debt ceiling will be successfully raised, minimizing the risk of default. This morning, preliminary Japan Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2023 was released. It unexpectedly grew by +1.6% YoY. This is better than forecasts, but the yen still weakened. In the Eurozone, final inflation data for April will be published today. According to preliminary data, it stood at 7% YoY.

Bitcoin quotes have been trading within a range of approximately $30,500 to $26,800 for the past eight weeks. The UK Treasury Committee recommended regulating retail cryptocurrency trading similarly to gambling and noted that the risks involved could be roughly equal. Bitcoin is currently trading near the lower boundary of its familiar range. Litecoin quotes surged by 15.4% in a week. Players consider this cryptocurrency attractive due to its speed and ease of transactions, as well as following the publication of the Litecoin Ordinals Protocol.

On Tuesday, US stock indices declined. It is worth noting that they are currently moving in different directions: the Dow is decreasing, while the Nasdaq is rising. The main negative factors were investors' expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining a high rate (5.25%) and poor corporate news. Major retail chain Home Depot (-2.1%) issued a weak sales forecast for the rest of the year, despite the positive United States Retail Sales data for April. Shares of other American retailers also declined yesterday. Specifically, Lowe's Companies dropped by 1.2%, Walmart by 1.4%, and Target by 1.6%. The US Federal Trade Commission expressed opposition to the acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics (-14.2%) by pharmaceutical giant Amgen Inc (-2.4%).

It is worth noting the strong growth of the Japanese stock index Nikkei, which reached a new high since September 2021 this morning. This is due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. Today, data on the United States Building Permits and Housing Starts in the real estate market will be released.

Yesterday, oil prices slightly declined. Investors are concerned about the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the reduction in demand for commodities following the release of industrial production and retail sales data for April, which were worse than expected. Another negative factor was the announcement by the independent American Petroleum Institute of an unexpected increase in US oil inventories by 3.69 million barrels over the week. Additionally, some market participants note that Russia has not yet begun to reduce oil production by 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd) as promised starting from May 1st. On the other hand, support for oil prices comes from plans to impose new anti-Russian sanctions at the Group of Seven (G7) meeting scheduled for May 19-21 in Japan. Another positive factor is the plans of the US authorities to start purchasing oil for the national strategic reserves.

In Europe, natural gas on the ICE Dutch TTF market plummeted to $350 per 1000 cubic meters. The quotes for American gas at Henry Hub continued to rise and are currently around $2.5 per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu).