USD Continues to Strengthen - 20.12.2013

On Thursday early in the day expected correction in U.S. dollar has not received further development. Greenback continued strengthening against the other currencies. It should be noted that this trend was observed in spite of yesterday's weak macroeconomic data from the USA. Home sales in November fell by 4.3% and approached its annual bottom. Unemployment per week exceeded preliminary forecasts and reached 9 months maximum. As we can see all of this could not hurt the U.S. currency. Perhaps its strengthening will continue to the end of the year. Today at 13-30 (UTS) US GDP for the third quarter of this year will be published. Increase by 3.6% is expected. This is the maximum rate from the first quarter of 2010. The data is unlikely to affect the currency market, as this is the third estimate of GDP. It is not a surprise. However, if the economic indicators in the U.S. will be positive next week, then the dollar will get an additional boost to growth.

The reason of Japanese yen's strengthening was the decision of the Bank of Japan to increase the annual growth of the monetary base from 60 trillion yen ($ 576 billion) to 70 trillion yen. The weakening of the Japanese yen is an important plan of BoJ, as it significantly supports the export and has a positive effect on economy. Some Japanese experts believe that the best course would be about 108 yen per U.S. dollar.

Euro exchange rate (EURUSD) fell after rating agency Standard&Poor's downgraded EU long-term rate from its maximum level of AAA to AA+. The main reason for this was an extremely high unemployment and low economic growth.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD), two days ago updated its 3.5-years low and is trying to be adjusted upward. While it is difficult to say whether it is justified. We believe that in the current situation the Australian dollar will depend on the performance of the Chinese economy. China is one of the main buyers of Australian minerals. In the case of an economic slowdown in China, the AUDUSD exchange rate may continue to decline.