August 3, 2026 (S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Final)

August 3 is the final July Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global). The flash already came out at 53.8, down from June's 55.7 and below the 54.3 forecast, so momentum in manufacturing cooled a bit.

S&P 500 is around 7,454, near record highs, up 0.57% on the day but not much month on month movement lately.

What you should also watch

• Oil's been spiking on US/Israel - Iran War in the Gulf, this is what is pushing yields up too
• Fed decision just before Aug 3, which is a big catalyst
• Also big Tech earnings this week (Apple, Microsoft, Meta)

How to think about the PMI trade itself: You can’t treat PMI as a standalone catalyst, we have Fed decision and mega cap earnings, both are big movers. So this report will add to volatility but it surely won’t set the trend. Keep stops tighter than usual next week, and watch oil and yields as your leading indicator.

• Oil prices rising (from the US/Israel - Iran war) pushes up inflation expectations, which pushes Treasury yields higher and higher yields hurt stocks, because it makes future earnings worth less today and makes bonds more competitive.

If oil and the 10-year yield are both going up as we head into August 3, expect stocks to be under pressure, no matter what the manufacturing report actually says.