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Arabica Coffee Technical Analysis - Arabica Coffee Trading: 2022-11-23
COFFEE Technical Analysis Summary
Above 167
Buy Stop
Below 153
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Buy |
| MACD | Buy |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Buy |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
COFFEE Chart Analysis
COFFEE Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COFFEE: D1 has moved up from the downtrend. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if COFFEE: D1 rises above the last high: 167. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal, the last down fractal and the low since July 2021: 153. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (153) without activating the order (167), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - COFFEE
In Brazil, the weather is worsening. Will COFFEE quotes go up?
Somar Meteorologia has reported a lack of rainfall in Brazil's Minas Gerais region, which accounts for 30% of the country's Arabica coffee crop. Brazil grows about a third of the world's coffee. Earlier, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) announced a reduction in global coffee exports in October-September 2022 by 0.4% y/y to 129 million bags. In early November, the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported a 5% y/y cut in coffee exports from its country in October to 942,000 bags. This week, the USDA lowered its 2022/2023 coffee harvest forecast for Colombia to 12.6 million bags from 13 million bags previously expected. On Friday, the Weekly Commitment of Traders reported that net-short arabica coffee positions reached a 2-year high as of Nov. 15. Theoretically, closing these positions can push quotes up.
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