Trader Makes $410,000 Betting on Maduro’s Removal

An unknown slick trader made $410,000 in profit by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be ousted (kidnapped by US authorities). 

The guy or gal with a nose for the situation or insider information was accumulating positions in contracts tied to Maduro’s removal. Positions valued at about $34,000 before the weekend, and after "military operation" information broke out so did the profit. 

After this amazingly blatant, only US can do such things and not get sanctioned, actions,  major U.S. stock indexes rose on Monday, oil prices gained, and energy shares also rose. 

Venezuelan government bonds, which have been in default, rose. Bonds issued by the government and state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) increased nearly 30%, as investors took advantage of the situation to profit. 

Well as you can imagine that caught the attention of US lawmakers, no, not the kidnapping of Maduro, the trade - $410 000. And to stop outrageous trader behavior some actions were introduced, ready? Elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees are restricted from betting on prediction market platforms, because they have information that nobody else has, this one is new, I bet above mentioned individuals had no idea about insider trading ethics. 

Anonymous account was created last month, trader initially bought $96 worth of contracts on December 27 that would pay out if the United States invaded Venezuela by January 31, and then increased positions over the following days.

Prediction markets allow users to trade yes or no contracts on events in politics, economics, sports, and entertainment. Contracts that cost just a few cents can generate a profit of $1 if the event happens. So traders with good analytical skills (or familiar with how low US government can go) can make good profits in a short period of time, of course those profits won't be as huge as from taking over Venezuela's oil companies. 

Polymarket has already faced scrutiny over insider trading activity, but US residents are currently barred from accessing its main platform, and since traders with inside information never heard of VPN we are all safe.

And that’s why, my friends, it’s good to be in the loop.