BRICS Support May Cost South Africa

President Trump just announced a 10% extra tariff on any country he believes is siding with the Anti-American policies of BRICS. He didn’t list specific actions or name countries, but his post came right as BRICS leaders were meeting in Rio de Janeiro and openly criticizing U.S. trade policies, especially unilateral tariffs.

Looks like Trump is targeting any move that supports breaking away from the U.S. led financial system, like BRICS push for alternative trade systems or their effort to reduce reliance on the dollar. He didn’t explain exactly how this alignment will be measured, which makes it harder for countries to measure their risk. But the message is clear: if you back BRICS too publicly, expect consequences.

What Is BRICS and Why It Matters

BRICS is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, along with newer members like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The group’s main goal is to give more power to countries from the Global South, cut down on reliance on the U.S. dollar, and build alternative trade and finance systems.

At this year’s summit, BRICS leaders also gave symbolic support to Iran after recent military strikes, which felt like a clear message, they’re trying to stand together against Western dominance, even if they don’t say it directly

South Africa is Between BRICS and the U.S.

South Africa has always backed BRICS’ bigger goals - de-dollarization, infrastructure development, and diversifying trade partners. But, also relies heavily on trade with the U.S., especially under deals like AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act).

If Trump follows through on his tariff threat, South Africa could end up stuck in the middle. Either it stays loyal to BRICS and risks U.S. retaliation, or it pulls back from BRICS to protect access to the U.S. market.

So far, the government hasn’t said anything publicly. But if the U.S. officially labels South Africa as “aligned with BRICS,” that could seriously damage trade ties and scare off investment.

USDZAR Analysis

The USDZAR currency pair is likely to react strongly to how this plays out over the coming weeks.

1. If Trump starts naming specific countries or hints at penalizing South Africa, ZAR could weaken sharply. Concerns about tariffs tend to increase capital outflows from emerging markets.

2. Even without immediate action, the possibility of future tariffs increases political and trade risk, which might lead to higher yields on South African bonds and a weaker rand.

3. If the US were to renegotiate South Africa's eligibility for AGOA or halt trade talks, it would be a clear bearish signal for the ZAR. Keep an eye on Washington and Pretoria for any changes in tone or language around trade cooperation.

4. As volatility picks up, you should watch: support near 17.50, with a deeper support around 17.13. Immediate resistance is at 18.04 - 18.08, followed by a stronger resistance near 18.40. A clean break above 18.40 could shift momentum and push USDZAR toward a broader recovery range.

5. ZAR often moves in line with other BRICS currencies, especially CNY and RUB. If China faces pressure from Trump and CNY weakens, ZAR may follow.

Bottom Line Is

Trump’s 10% tariff threat may sound vague, but its impact could be real, especially for BRICS members like South Africa that walk a fine line between supporting alternative global systems and staying on good terms with the U.S..

This could be a potential trigger for higher volatility for USDZAR, particularly if the rhetoric escalates before the August 1 tariff date.