EURUSD Mixed on Improved PMI Data in EZ and US, US Dollar Higher - 25.7.2013

European PMIs positively surprised market participants on Wednesday with EZ Manufacturing PMI rising above 50 for the first time since July 2011, providing an early indication that recession could come to an end. European stocks closed yesterday in positive light with FTSE 100 rising by 0.35%, DAX up by 0.78% and CAC gaining 1.01%. The Euro versus the US dollar initially advanced as high as 1.3253 following PMI releases but then came down again as US data positively surprised as well markets.

US Manufacturing PMI stood at 53.2, higher than expected at 52.5 and that supported the greenback in two ways, firstly due to its direct positive effect and secondly through increasing chances of FED tapering its bond buying program. In addition, US New Home Sales increased by 497k in June, more than anticipated and up from revised 459k, further supporting the greenback. Eventually the EURUSD dropped to 1.3177, as the US dollar was gaining power, early on Thursday though the currency pair retraced to 1.3211. We observe continuous improvement in US fundamentals and that could easily refresh speculation of FED reducing asset purchases lifting its currency value. Moreover, technically speaking on the 4-hour chart the US dollar Index found support around the 61.8% of the 80.51 to 84.73, at 81.90, therefore since technicals and fundamentals coincide we expect the greenback to gain ground against its major counterparties in the following trading.

The Aussie against the US dollar was sliding yesterday, falling from resistance at 92.96 as Chinese sluggish HSBC PMI data indicated lower economic activity in its most important trading pattern,followed by US dollar strengthen, the pair was pushed to fresh weekly lows at 0.9133. The British pound against the US dollar it has been in sideways trading between 1.5393/1.5300 with preliminary GDP data for the 2nd quarter coming out today, expected to increase by 0.6%, higher than previous 0.3%. Lower growth than 0.6% would weigh on sterling and the lower barrier at 1.5300 could be penetrated shifting focus to next support at 1.52.