American labor market data may affect the dollar - 7.8.2015

American indices retreated on Thursday due to weak reports by Viacom and Walt Disney companies. Their shares lost 14.2% and 1.8% respectively. Time Warner, Comcast, CBS and Twenty-First Century Fox also showed a drop. Tesla shares fell 8.9%, while Keurig Green Mountain stocks declined 30% after reporting low profits. About three-fourths of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings this season. Analysts expect the overall income to increase 1.6%, with earning contracting 3.4%. Yesterday the American stocks turnover was 15% above the 5-day average, making 7.8bln shares. Labor market data will be releases today in the US at 14:30 CET; the tentative outlook is positive. Non-Farm Payrolls indicator may gain 225 thousand.

European indices are traded in a range today due to mixed macroeconomic data from Germany. In June industrial production contracted, while trade surplus reached the record 24bln euros. The first indicator appeared to be negative and the second one produced a positive effect. No important statistics are expected in eurozone today. The euro may weaken if the Non-Farm Payrolls release turns out to be bright.

Nikkei closed up today as Bank of Japan left the monetary stimulus program volume unchanged (it equals 80trln yens per year). We remind that the regulator expects the inflation to reach the target 2% level by September. The yen has stabilized close to recent highs. Investors anticipate the GDP indicator to be released August, 17.

Gold futures have been climbing 2 consequent days due to constantly growing demand in Asia. Ahead of the Diwali and Dussehra festivals gold in India has been traded $2.1 per ounce above London. It is tradition during these holidays to give gold jewelery. In July India imported 70-75 tons of gold as compared to 57 tons in June. The gold premium in Hong Kong rose $1.2 ounce as well. To be noted, investors forecast the annual gold import by India to expand to 1 thousand tons. The country imported 930 tons of gold last business year, ended in March, 2015.

Copper futures fell to the 6-year lowest. Meanwhile, some market participants, including Morgan Stanley and ICBC Standard Bank, are going to cut this year production forecasts. As estimated before, the global copper output will total 22mln tons, creating the 194th ton surplus. We would like to draw your attention to the fact that at Shanghai Exchange the number of open copper positions decreased 40% while the trade volume fell 66% as compared to the highs, recorded this February. It may indicate that investors are not sure about further drop in copper prices.

The Brazilian real hit a new 12-year low, driven down by cheap sugar and coffee. Cacao futures have been pushing down for 6 straight days. National Cocoa and Coffee Board expects cacao crops in Cameroon to rise in the season 2014/2015 to 232.53 tons as compared to 209.9 tons in the previous season.